Similar to forex trading, the crypto market is also traded 24/7 and follows the same traditional three-session trading system.
- Asia: 00:00-12:00 UTC
- Europe: 07:00-19:00 UTC
- United States: 13:00-01:00 UTC
On-chain analysis reveals the extent to which Asia continues to play the role of ‘smart money’.
Bitcoin monthly price fluctuation
The chart below shows Bitcoin’s Monthly Price Change (MoMPC) over a 30-day period for regional prices in all three regions.
Regional pricing is determined in a two-step process. First, price movements are assigned to regions based on working hours in Asia, Europe, and the United States. Bitcoin supply geolocation is performed probabilistically at the entity level.Timestamps of all transactions made by an entity are correlated with working hours in various geographic regions to determine the probability of each entity being in Asia, Europe, or the United States
An entity’s balance contributes to the supply of each region only if its location can be determined with a high degree of certainty. Supplies held in exchange wallets are excluded.
Region prices are determined by calculating the cumulative sum of price changes for each region over time.
Over the past two years, Asia has outperformed Europe and the US in terms of top selling and buying amid concerns about market sentiment.
For example, the November 2021 market top saw a high volume of deliveries from Asia. Similarly, Europe and the US bought as BTC headed towards his $25,000 in July and Asia sold during his relief rally in August.
Bitcoin is currently trading below $20,000 over the weekend, MoMPC shows Asia is buying as the rest of the world is terrified.
Year-over-year analysis
The chart below shows the regional price changes seen year-over-year. This shows that Asia has been very bullish on Bitcoin since the Terra LUNA/UST collapse, buying at subdued prices. Conversely, Europe and the United States are selling.
Similarly, while the 2020 bull market headed into the second half of 2021, the US was a huge buyer, while Asia was a net seller, further demonstrating that Asia is a smart money region.
