Bitcoin mining energy consumption estimated to rise 10x if price hits $2M – Arcane Research

According to Arcane Research, if the price of the leading cryptocurrency reaches $2 million by 2040, the energy consumption of Bitcoin (BTC) mining will increase tenfold, reaching 894 terawatt hours (TWh) annually. prize. report Published August 22nd.

The report calculated BTC’s future energy consumption based on bullish, bearish and neutral future scenarios.

bitcoin e
BTC Estimated Energy Consumption 2022-2040

If prices follow a bearish trajectory and reach only $100,000 by 2040, energy consumption will be halved from current levels, falling to 45 TWh. This is estimated to be his 0.02% of global energy consumption in 2040.

In a neutral scenario with prices reaching $500,000 by 2040, energy consumption levels are estimated at around 223 TWh.

Bitcoin Halving Limits Energy Consumption

Halving effects can be observed in bearish and neutral scenarios. A bearish scenario means the price will rise fourfold. It is natural that the energy consumption level will increase, but the estimated consumption level will be lower than the current level.

Similarly, costs would increase by a factor of 20 in the neutral scenario, but consumption levels would be roughly double their current levels.

Block subsidies are halved every 210,000 blocks, roughly every 4 years. Because of this, the mining energy consumption level will gradually weaken over time. The report states:

“Bitcoin energy consumption will only increase if the Bitcoin price rises at a faster rate than the block subsidies fall. needs to double every four years to offset the

The report added:

“In this case, the price of Bitcoin would need to be around $650,000 in 2040 for its energy consumption to be higher than it is today.”

The report also compares Bitcoin’s energy production to cement production, highlighting the declining need for energy.

Bitcoin and Energy Consumption of Cement Production 2022-2040

The graph above assumes that the most energy-consuming scenario is realized. When the price of Bitcoin reaches $2 million by 2040 and annual energy consumption reaches 894 TWh, Bitcoin’s annual energy demand will be equivalent to his 0.36% of global energy consumption.

This is a significant increase from the current 0.05%, but remains low compared to cement production, which consumes 2% of the world’s energy.

green bitcoin mining

In addition to declining energy demand, the cryptocurrency community is bullish on sustainable energy. Communities have found ways to harness solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, tidal and waste energy.

Especially since the end of 2021, various partnerships have emerged from the cryptocurrency community. In May 2022, Block, Blockstream and Tesla partnered to create a solar-powered green mining farm.

In April, Marathon Digital decided to replace its energy sources with carbon neutral ones. Meanwhile, Kenya has launched a nationwide initiative to make surplus geothermal energy available to mining companies.

Recent research also reflects an increasing trend of sustainable power in cryptocurrency mining. According to the October 2021 Bitcoin Mining Council (BMC) report, the mining industry’s sustainable energy use was 57.7%.

BMC’s next report, released in May 2022, calculates sustainable energy usage at over 74%.

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