CPI Report Live Updates: What to Expect on April’s Inflation

With interest rates now above 5%, policy makers are suggesting they may be able to pause rate action at a mid-June…Gabby Jones of The New York Times

Inflation is expected to break out of a long-running decline, Wednesday’s closely monitored report said. It emphasizes that it is likely to continue to burden American families for some time to come.

The consumer price index is expected to rise 5% year-on-year in April, holding onto March levels after falling for nine straight times. This plateau could come amid significant price increases for food, gas, used cars and auto insurance. Inflation is still down markedly from its peak of just over 9% last summer, but remains well above its usual pre-pandemic annual rate of 2%.

After stripping away food and fuel to capture underlying trends in inflation (which economists call the core indicator), consumer prices climbed 5.5%, down slightly from the previous 5.6%. It is expected that

Inflation is slowly coming down, but it is still too high for policy makers to feel comfortable. Much of the slowdown in price gains was due to the resolving of supply chain bottlenecks, the easing of commodity shortages, and subsequent moderation in gas prices. Summer 2022 surge It had to do with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Potential trends that could keep inflation high over the long term, such as unusually high inflation and the potential for businesses to charge more for their products and services, are It remains as it is.

Federal Reserve officials are likely to watch April’s inflation report closely. Officials have raised interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s over the past year at a meeting. That decision will depend on upcoming economic and financial data, they said.

Policymakers receive the May consumer price report on June 13, the day before the decision, but officials usually give the market at least a hint of what to do with interest rates ahead of time. Here is the April report.

There may be some silver lining in April’s numbers. Some economists expect service prices to drop significantly after cutting food, energy and housing costs. Policymakers are looking to that curtailed measure as a signal of where inflation will head next.

Inflation Insights founder Omaia Sharif wrote in a note ahead of the report that airfare and health insurance measures could be among the categories that could pull the core index down.

He is calling for the “slowest pace of progress since July 2022” in measures that are being closely watched, he wrote.

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