How Low Can SSD Prices Go? TrendForce Expects NAND Price Decline to Continue

As demand continues to slump, trend force NAND Flash Average Selling Price (ASP) is expected to drop another 5-10% in 2Q23. There seems to be a key point in the second half of the year where demand and supply may be in balance and there may be a turnaround. In addition to manufacturers cutting production, it relies heavily on shipments of his NAND flash packing products such as servers, smartphones and computers.

Even if the NAND flash industry does well, TrendForce’s best estimate is that Q3 2023 will be a period of stability and Q4 2023 could see a recovery. TrendForce’s report follows a disastrous financial report shared by memory giant Micron. In case you missed it, Micron’s year-over-year revenue fell nearly 53% due to lower utilization of its NAND and DRAM products. Micron’s forecast is similar in at least one way to TrendForce’s forecast, which was pessimistic for 2Q23.

TrendForce does not offer many positive opinions regarding client SSDs (consumer devices sold as PC components or sold through PC manufacturers). PCIe Gen 3 SSD inventories are being reduced aggressively, while PCIe Gen 4 drive adoption has been slower than some expected. TLC NAND also fell as the price of QLC NAND dropped.

It will be difficult for NAND makers to cut prices further, but they are still expected to drop 5-10% in the coming quarters. There remains hope that at some point in the second half of 2023, the industry will show positive momentum in dependent markets such as laptops and smartphones, with new generation devices helping the shift to more NAND.

The outlook for enterprise SSDs this year is bright. TrendForce says recently approved government initiatives will boost demand in China. Additionally, the launch of AMD Genoa is a plus for the server maker and, by extension, his NAND supplier. Nonetheless, NAND flash makers are in a weaker negotiating position, so TrendForce predicts enterprise SSD prices to drop around 8-13% in his 2Q23.