Bitcoin (BTC) price during the coldest winter in crypto history is very disappointing for investors. At a certain point, prices are lower than they were almost five years ago. Nonetheless, this does not mean that Bitcoin’s price will drop even if we zoom out.
A look at the past significant price drops and bitcoin’s recovery rate reveals that bitcoin hit new highs at the end of each bearish cycle.
Bitcoin’s current price remains at around $19,300, about 72% from the all-time high (ATH) of $69,045 recorded on November 10, 2021. However, this change is relatively normal for Bitcoin, as it fell about 75% to $17,600 in June 2022.
As you can see in the chart above, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2020 all saw the same drop of 75% or more. These changes show considerable volatility. However, Bitcoin’s price has prevailed each time and has recovered to hit all-time highs.
Bitcoin price breaks the infamous $20,000 support in late August 2022. $20,000 was his ATH point during the 2017 bull market. Breaking past the previous bull market peak is something Bitcoin has never done before and could sway investors.
Is $20,000 the correct benchmark?
$20,000 was actually recorded as the ATH of the 2017 bull market. However, a closer look reveals that the price of Bitcoin was only $20,000 for him in a matter of hours. The average price at the peak of the 2017 bull market was between $8,000 and $10,000.
Meanwhile, the average price from 2018 to 2020 is just above $8,000. The high was $20,000 on December 17, 2017. This continued for several days and the price returned to $10,000 by early January 2018.
As a result, the average price from 2018 to 2020 is close to $8,800, which is the right benchmark to consider.
Bitcoin’s 360-day moving average chart shows that BTC price hasn’t strayed too far from the 360 DMA over 2018-2020.
The December 2017 peak price of $20,000 is shown in the chart above as a significant separation from the 360 DMA. This deviation indicates that the Bitcoin price was artificially raised to $20,000.
Looking at the average price and 360 DMA at the end of 2017, it’s clear that Bitcoin has returned to an average price range of around $10,000 and below after the upside effects wear off.
Less than $10,000 to $20,000
All things considered, it’s not entirely true to claim that Bitcoin’s current trajectory is doomed just because it broke the previous bull market ATH below $20,000.
The $20,000 price level reached after the artificial pump could be recorded as ATH at that point. However, according to the data, the average price in 2018 was between $8,000 for him and $10,000 for him.
Considering that the Bitcoin price is currently hovering around $20,000, this represents a 2x increase compared to 2018.