Less than 50,000 blocks remaining
Less than 50,000 blocks left until Bitcoin Halving.
Tweet from Bitcoin forest emphasized the milestone, adding that this sets the halving date to April 22, 2024.
Based on this timeline, the event will occur in 342 days. However, this is expected to fluctuate depending on whether the block closes earlier or later than the specified 10 minute interval.
Bitcoin community waiting for halving
Bitcoin halving refers to the built-in 50% reduction in mining block rewards that occurs every 210,000 blocks (usually every 4 years).
This half-life is the 4th Bitcoin has reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC for the first time in its history. There are 33 halvings programmed into the protocol, with the final halving set to occur in 2140 when the block reward becomes zero.
With a fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins, the halving slows down the number of coins in circulation and incorporates a scarcity mechanism into the protocol. Theoretically, this process influences supply and demand dynamics, acting as a tailwind for prices.
This prediction was developed on the basis of historical data and fabricated the narrative that the halving is a bull market catalyst.
However, it’s worth noting that having three data points is not statistically exact. Moreover, macroeconomic uncertainty has not been a factor in the halving to date.
half-life in the past
Bit Harrington Graph Bitcoin price on a logarithmic scale, marking highs a year ago, the halving itself, and after the halving.
first halving – occurred in November 28, 2012reducing the block reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.
- A year ago the price was about $2.
- At the time of the halving, it was $12.35.
- The highest price around January 2014 was around $1,000.
This corresponds to a 7,997% increase from half-life to the post-half-life high.
second half-life – Occurred on July 9, 2016, reducing the block reward from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.
- A year ago the price was about $270.
- At the time of the halving it was $650.
- The highest price around December 2017 was around $19,800.
This corresponds to a 2,946% increase from half-life to the post-half-life high.
3rd halving – Occurred on May 11, 2020, reducing the block reward from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.
- A year ago the price was around $8,500.
- At the time of the halving, it was $9,756.
- It peaked at $69,000 around November 2022.
This corresponds to a 607% increase from half-life to the post-half-life high.
In all three cases, the price rose one year before the halving, towards a post-halving high. As expected, BTC’s price is now in the five digits and the rate of increase from halving to post-halving highs has slowed.
If Bitcoin follows the same pattern this time around, the price is expected to hit a market high above $27,000. COO of Onramp Jesse Myers Top prices are between $120,000 and $240,000.