Market has started to price in a 10% chance of a 25bps rate hike, due to unemployment data

quick take

• The US unemployment rate has fallen to 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969.
• The salary data was 253,000 and the expected value was 185,000.
• While the market is currently paused, 25bps was not considered until today. 10% chance now.
• This makes the Federal Funds interest rate between 5.25 and 5.50.

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