Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp (YMTC) will not be able to manufacture competitive 3D NAND memory in a few years. It has been placed According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Entity List, trend forceAfter the sanctions, the company will find it difficult to source products such as wafer fab equipment (WFE) from US-based companies, hampering Bit’s growth. On the other hand, partners outside China may stop cooperating with the YMTC.
Blacklisting allows the US DoC to screen all individual transactions of wafer fabrication equipment, software, technology, support services, and other US-origin commodities to Chinese 3D NAND manufacturers. The whole procurement process is difficult and lengthy for the YMTC, as such export license applications are reviewed on the basis of denial.
This will have a particularly dramatic impact on YMTC’s bit output growth as it will have to source a large amount of advanced tools from various companies including the US, Japan and Holland. Due to the current difficulty in obtaining new equipment from the US, YMTC will be severely constrained by the increased production of 3D NAND. Further, suppose that Japan and the Netherlands follow the United States in imposing restrictions on China’s semiconductor industry. In that case, it will be more difficult for companies within the People’s Republic, including the YMTC, to source his WFE from foreign companies.
TrendForce originally believed that YMTC’s 232-layer 3D NAND memory ramp featuring the Xtacking 3.0 architecture and other means would increase the company’s bit output by 60% in 2023 compared to 2022. The company has revised its forecasts to an 18% increase in his. Now that YMTC is blacklisted, TrendForce believes its bit output will decline by 7% year-on-year in his 2023.
TrendForce argues that the YMTC will lose its competitiveness due to technology stagnation, as it is nearly impossible for the YMTC to source cutting-edge fab tools and other technology from US firms. In contrast, other 3D NAND makers will move to 200-layer 3D NAND memory by 2024 and start manufacturing cutting-edge his 300-layer 3D NAND products for his SSD, which is the best to date. may even.
If YMTC can keep up with its peers with its 232-layer 3D NAND ramp, it will lose market share as flash memory from companies such as Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung are more cost-effective.
Another reason the YMTC is losing market share is that companies outside China may not want to work with companies on the US DoC Entity List. TrendForce claims that PC OEMs planning to certify YMTC’s client SSDs have “temporarily halted the customer sampling and adoption process.” As a result, analysts believe YMTC will be forced to focus solely on the domestic market.
TrendForce believes that in order to survive, YMTC may need to move to manufacturing specialized 2D NAND flash or turn into a contract maker of chips focused on mature manufacturing processes.