Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea has soared global grain prices, raised fears of hunger in some countries, and caused widespread criticism. It also caused a nasty problem: how to find a new route for Ukrainian agricultural exports.
The proposed alternative is not to use the port of Ukraine to export wheat, sunflower oil, corn and other agricultural products, but to export to Poland across the western border of Ukraine or to Romania to the southwest. It involves crossing the Donau River to Romania’s Black Sea Port. Of Constanta.
Western leaders have been lining up in the last few weeks to provide support for these solutions. President Biden said last week that the United States is working with Europe to build grain storage capacity in Poland. The European Union’s Foreign Policy Officer called the blockade a war crime. And on Sunday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson called for “a long-term effort to develop an alternative land route that already exists.”
However, analysts say that while moves to improve alternative routes can increase exports somewhat, they are not sufficient to meet global food demand. They also say they don’t wait for a relentless crop rotation cycle.
Mike Leigh, a specialist in the Black Sea agricultural project at Green Square Agro Consulting in the United Kingdom, said he was “rushing to find an alternative” for Ukraine’s grain exports. “But the only realistic route to export grain is via the Black Sea port, and there is no alternative to reach the amount that needs to be shifted.”
A better understanding of the Russian-Ukraine war
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged the limitations of the alternatives being considered. In his speech on Monday, he said, “a much smaller amount can be supplied through the new route,” and “this results in a much more expensive supply.”
Exports slowed during the pandemic as the world economy shrank, but Ukraine typically ships about 50-60 million tonnes of agricultural products annually. According to statistics from Strategie Grains, part of the French research firm Tallage, its exports plummeted after the Russian invasion began in May.
In other words, Ukraine provided about 15 percent of the world’s wheat exports in 2019, before the pandemic. However, Andrée Defois, Deputy Chief Operating Officer of Strategie Grain, said the figure could now drop to about 6%, unless there is a “miracle.”
The European Union in May presented plans to secure an alternative route, and the Hungarian Foreign Minister offered its territory as a possible export platform on Monday.
Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Agriculture Markian Dmytrasevych made a specific request last week in a speech to the European Union, including measures to improve the port of Constanta and speed up transport across the Donau River.
But experts say the disability is a corps. The Ukrainian railway system operates at a different gauge than most other countries in the European Union. Building storage capacity takes time. There are too few ferries on the Donau River to transport produce. And Constanta is too small to handle the amount of crops from Ukraine.
In addition, securing private investment in the infrastructure that would be needed for such alternatives is difficult, partly because it is unclear how long the blockade will last, Lee said.
Russia’s agreement to lift the blockade of the route could solve the problem. However, Turkey-led negotiations in the hope of achieving such an arrangement have had no concrete consequences, and the fight in the Black Sea continues.
