Realized price closing in long-term holder price: Does this signal a possible end of the bear market?

quick take

Data analytics firm Glassnode provides charts that track weekly percentage changes in realized prices for various on-chain groups. This tool helps detect when the total cost measure has increased or decreased significantly over a short period of time.

Realized price is the cumulative price of each coin when it was last used on the chain. Using short-term and long-term holder heuristics allows the calculation of realized prices that can be interpreted as estimated average purchase prices for each investor group.

Key metrics include:

• of realization priceShown in orange reflects the average on-chain purchase price of the entire coin supply.
• Realized price for short-term holders Depicted in red represents the average on-chain purchase price of coins not stored in exchange reserves and traded within the last 155 days. These coins are most likely to be used on certain days.
• Realized price for long-term holdersShown in blue is the average on-chain buy price for coins that are not in the exchange reserve and have not been moved in the last 155 days. These coins are least likely to be used on any given day.

crypto slate recently noticed that the realization price is within $100 of the realization price for long-term holders. Historically, this signaled the end of a bear market, a pattern we have seen at the end of previous bear markets.

CryptoSlate has previously investigated a similar situation where short-term holders’ realization prices exceeded both long-term holders’ realization prices, but this incident dates back to March.

Currently, the realized price is $20,425 and the long-term holder realized price is $20,557.

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