Scientists Zero In on the Origins of the Monkeypox Outbreak

European health officials were confused when the first case of monkeypox was identified in early May. The virus was not known to spread easily among people, much less to infect dozens, and even hundreds, of young men.

The cause of the outbreak is now becoming clear. Genetic analysis suggests that the monkeypox virus is rapidly spreading in the field, but has been quietly prevalent in people for many years.

Health officials have already identified two versions of monkeypox among American patients, suggesting at least two separate transmission routes. Researchers in several countries have found cases with no known source of infection. Undetected community spread..And one research team claimed last month that they already had monkeypox. The threshold has been exceeded For sustainable human-to-human transmission.

genetically information Available so far Shown Trevor Bedford, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, said that at some point in the past few years, the virus had become better spread among people.

“The genomic pattern suggests that this happened around 2018,” Dr. Bedford said.

If the virus is adapted to include humans as a host, monkeypox will occur more frequently and may be more difficult to contain. It carries the risk of spreading monkeypox from infected people to animals (probably rodents). Countries other than Africa have been suffering from the problem for decades. The virus can persist in infected animals and sporadically cause new infections in people.

Sagan Friant, an anthropologist at Pennsylvania State University, who has been studying human-animal interactions in Nigeria for nearly 15 years, said:

The longer it takes to contain the virus, the more likely it is that humans and animals will find a permanent new home, Dr. Friant said.

As of Wednesday, the United States has identified 156 cases in 23 states and the District of Columbia. Global tolls have exceeded 3,400 confirmed cases and an additional 3,500 cases have been evaluated, three times the number two weeks ago.

8 countries in Africa Was reporting As of June 10, there were more than 1,500 suspicious cases and 72 deaths, most of which occurred in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Monkeypox is a double-stranded DNA virus that is about seven times as large as the coronavirus. DNA-based viruses can correct their own errors when replicating genetic material. Compared to 20 to 30 mutations in RNA viruses such as coronavirus, they may collect only one or two mutations per year.

However, the monkeypox virus seems to have unexpectedly accumulated many mutations. It will be close to 50 compared to the version that was popular in 2018. Preliminary analysis..

Of the 47 mutations identified in one analysis, 42 have distinct characteristics of an enzyme called Apobec3. This enzyme was first discovered by researchers studying HIV and is a so-called host defense factor. This is the weapon of the immune system that animals and people use to disarm viruses such as monkeypox.

Enzymes essentially make mistakes when the virus tries to replicate, causing the virus to self-destruct. Mice have only one version of this enzyme, while humans have seven. The rapid accumulation of mutations that is characteristic of enzymes since 2018 suggests that monkeypox may have switched to people as hosts at that time, Dr. Bedford said.

It is unclear how mutations change the virus. Of the 48 mutations Specific in the UK21, according to the UK Health and Security Agency, can affect how the disease spreads, its severity, and how well it responds to a treatment called tecovirimat.

However, the mutations introduced by the enzyme Apobec3 are intended to harm the virus, so the amount alone is not a concern, said Michael Malim, a virologist at King’s College London, who discovered Apobec3 in 2002. I am. , “He said. Comparing the current version of the virus with samples from the last few years may help to understand how the virus has evolved, but there is little information about it in Nigeria. Was incapable of sequencing genetic material until 2017.

Since then, scientists have analyzed the sequence of about 50 monkeypox cases, according to Dr. Ifedayo Adettifa, director of the Nigerian Disease Control Center. But without the specialized equipment and expertise needed for rapid analysis, scientists have not yet completed their work, he said.

Researchers have submitted some requests for data from outside Nigeria, but Dr. Adettifa reveals their work to prevent teams with more resources from defeating them and gaining credit. I said I’d wait to do it.

“I’m all in favor of open data sharing and all of it,” he said. “The question is, who will benefit?”

Some experts Note For many years The eradication of smallpox in 1980 Left the world vulnerable Increased the probability that monkeypox will evolve into a wider family of poxviruses Successful human pathogens..

In West Africa, the incidence of monkeypox is at least increasing 20 times since 1986.. In African countries, Dr. Adettifa said, “Underreporting is suspected because monkeypox awareness is relatively low and probably the risk of monkeypox is low.” Nigeria has increased surveillance of monkeypox, he added, which could increase the number of cases as more people become aware of the virus.

Monkeypox has a peculiar rash that appears on the palms and soles of the feet, but it occurs frequently. Confused with chickenpox.. Many of the men who are currently affected have genital lesions, which can be mistaken for sexually transmitted diseases such as syphilis. Gonorrhea and chlamydia..

With Italian researchers Germany Reported the discovery of monkeypox DNA in semenHowever, it is unclear whether the virus spreads that way or is simply present in semen or vaginal discharge.

The spread of genital ulcers among young men was observed at least once. In 2017, Nigeria recorded 228 suspected monkeypox cases and confirmed 60 cases.Virus epidemic Mainly among young men A person who had a genital ulcer.

How is the UK experience You can track complex contacts A viral infection that can be sexually transmitted, especially if the infected person has multiple anonymous partners. In the initial analysis of a subset of cases, officials said they were able to obtain names for less than one-third of the 78 reported sexual contacts.

Many incidents in Africa date back to contact with Wild animals Or the use of animal foods Medicinal Or cultural customs.

As deforestation and urbanization drive humans and animals closer together, more viruses can fly to human hosts. Monkeypox is most likely to leap to people from rodents. There are about 2,000 rodent species worldwide, accounting for 40 percent of all mammal species. The giant pouched rat is a strong candidate for a major reservoir for monkeypox, but there are other candidates such as striped dormouses and dormouses, giant pouched rats, rusty nose rats, and brushtail porcupines.

In the 2003 US outbreak, the shipment of Gambian bagged rats imported from Africa infected monkeypox with prairie dogs and 71 Americans. However, after a series of incidents, authorities did not find any signs of the virus in US animals.

There is no guarantee that luck will continue this time. “These spillover effects from other species, and what they mean and what the orbit is-it’s very unpredictable,” Dr. Marim said. “And it’s happening more and more.”