TSMC will raise its estimate per 300mm wafer processed on the N2 (2nm class) manufacturing node in 2025 by almost 25% compared to current estimates for 300mm wafers processed on the N3 (3nm class) manufacturing technology. According to estimates by Ready is the current flagship node. information network Published in looking for alpha.
The Information Network estimates that TSMC’s average selling price per N3 wafer is currently $19,865, up significantly from ASP’s $13,495 per N5 wafer in 2020, when N5 was the company’s most advanced node. Analysts expect TSMC’s N2 will offer performance, power and transistor density improvements over N3, but at an additional cost. The Information Network believes his fee per N2 wafer will be $24,570 when the semiconductor contract manufacturer begins mass production in the second half of 2025, a nearly 25% increase compared to his N3. becomes.
As chips become more sophisticated, contain more transistors, and require higher performance efficiency, they must be manufactured using the latest process technology. But advanced production can only be implemented using state-of-the-art equipment in fabs costing tens of billions of dollars. As such, modern manufacturing processes are very expensive and are likely to become even more expensive in the coming years.
TSMC’s base N3 node will support up to 25 EUV layers (according to) china renaissance and semi-analytical), it’s unlikely that any chip would need that many EUV layers, but the numbers show just how complex this technology is. Running a single step of EUV litho etch costs $70 per wafer, adding approximately $350 million in capital costs for every 100,000 wafer starts per month per fab. Estimates by Applied Materials. Therefore, the more EUV steps a production node supports, the more expensive it can be to use.
N2 is set to be further refined, and TSMC has not said if it intends to use EUV double patterning for this node, but it is certainly one of the options under consideration. Either way, N2 is likely to be more costly to use than N3, so TSMC is more likely to charge him more for 2nm production than for 3nm production.
However, while chip manufacturing costs are rising, so are chip design costs. For example, the fairly complex 7nm chip cost about $300 million to develop, with about 40% allocated to software. International Business Strategy (IBS). By comparison, the cost of designing an advanced 5nm processor is estimated at over $540 million including software costs. Going forward, developing a complex GPU on the 3nm process node is expected to require an investment of approximately $1.5 billion, with software accounting for approximately 40% of the cost. These rising design and production costs will inevitably affect the prices of cutting-edge CPUs, GPUs, and SoCs, as well as his PCs, servers, and smartphones.
One thing to keep in mind when dealing with TSMC’s allegations of estimates is that while those estimates reflect trends, they may not accurately reflect actual numbers. . TSMC’s pricing is highly dependent on multiple factors such as quantity, actual customers, and actual chip design, to name a few. So take these numbers with a grain of salt.