However, their forecasts range from the relatively distant potential of a recession (generally defined as a contraction of the economy for the second consecutive quarter) to the more confident forecast that a recession is imminent. In general, predictors who say a recession can be avoided emphasize that it may be too optimistic, but those who are convinced that the economy will shrink will soon say that the recession is not so bad.
Here’s what some economists, analysts and strategists have recently talked about about the potential recession:
Daniel Buckman, who runs a US economic forecasting team at a consulting firm, has a 15% chance of a recession. This is “less likely than some analysts believe.”
Pantheon macroeconomics
Researchhouse Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson said, “There remains a basic case that the recession is unlikely,” and said a recession would be “concise and mild.” increase.
Morgan Stanley
“Accelerating inflation was a common precursor to a recession,” said Ellen Zentner, chief US economist at investment banks. However, according to the bank’s model, despite high inflation, the chances of a recession in the next 12 months are about 30%.
Goldman Sachs
Wall Street giant analysts have increased the probability of a recession, but believe it can still be avoided (via the “feasible but difficult road”). David Mericle and Lonnie Walker have raised the odds of a recession next year from 15% to 30% in the previous year and from 35% to just under 50% in the next two years.
JPMorgan Chase
Economist at the largest bank in the United States, led by Chief Economist Bruce Kasman, has raised the probability of a recession over the next 12 months to “unpleasantly high” 35%. “Risk is decisively biased towards rising inflation and falling growth,” they write.
Bank of America
Banking global economist Ethan Harris predicts that growth will slow to near zero in the second half of next year, with a 40% chance of a complete recession and “only a slight recovery” in 2024. increase.
Citigroup
Citigroup economists, led by Global Chief Economist Nathan Sheets, have set a 50% chance of a global recession and expect the US economy to slow but not shrink.
TD Bank
The economic team at a Canadian bank, led by Chief Economist Beata Calanchi, does not anticipate a recession in the United States, but says, “Growth is close to stagnation, so if another shock hits the economy, an error. There is very little room for it. “
Credit suisse
Jeremy Schwartz, director of the US economic bureau at the Swiss bank, believes inflation will “eventually slow”, but not enough to put the US economy in recession. Instead, “long-term stagnation is becoming more and more likely.”
Oxford Economics
The Federal Reserve has a “fighting opportunity” to curb inflation without causing a recession, writes Kathy Bossjanchić, Group Chief US Economist. She devalued her growth forecast. It is “approaching instability to turn into recession by mid-2023,” she says.
Fitch Ratings
The Fitch Ratings team, led by Chief Economist Brian Colton, expects economic growth to slow to just 0.1% quarterly from the second quarter to the fourth quarter of next year. As a result, the economy is in a “technical recession.”
Berenberg
Analysts at a German bank, led by Chief Economist Holger Schmiding, expect the U.S. economy to stagnate in late 2022 and shrink in the first three quarters of 2023, but are “relatively modest” for the year. It’s just 0.4%. “If you’re lucky, the recession will be shallow,” they write.
Deutsche Bank
A few months ago, economists at German banks predicted that the U.S. economy would be in recession by the end of 2023, but now, according to a team led by bank manager Matthew Luzetti, “earlier, We anticipate a rather serious recession. American economist. They expect the economy to shrink by 0.5 percent in 2023.
Wells Fargo
The bank’s chief economist, Jay Bryson, reports that the recession in 2023 “seems more likely than not.” He predicts that the economy will shrink by 1% in the next two quarters, similar to the recession in the early 1990s. This is “one of the mild recessions after World War II.” Regarding something similar to the silver lining, he wrote, “I don’t think the recession is particularly serious, so I don’t think the labor market will collapse completely.”
