The number of Americans flying this summer could surpass the pre-pandemic peak of 2019. That’s good news for airlines, but it could also trigger a backlash in the airline industry if it can’t keep up with demand, delaying or canceling thousands of flights. .
Recovery from the pandemic has been disrupted by several major travel meltdowns, stranded millions of travelers and angering lawmakers and regulators. In recent months, the Department of Transportation has called for greater transparency about airfares and proposed to ask companies to more fully compensate people whose flights are delayed or canceled.
A major misstep could increase political pressure on lawmakers and regulators to take a tougher stance against airlines and the Federal Aviation Administration, which oversees air traffic after some notable failures in recent years. be.
“I don’t think we can afford a summer like last year,” said William J. McGee, senior fellow at the American Economic Liberties Project, a research and advocacy group that has criticized aviation consolidation. “Last year, too, there was a pattern of last-minute flight cancellations, often due to crew shortages, which is totally unacceptable. I think.”
Industry executives and FAA officials say the changes in the wake of the recent disruptions and meltdowns will make air travel this summer less disruptive and more comfortable than in recent years.
Why are airlines struggling so much?
Nearly every major airline and air traffic control system has suffered a meltdown at some point in its recovery from the pandemic.
In the early days when a coronavirus vaccine was still in development and testing and travel restrictions prevented people from traveling, the federal government gave airlines billions of dollars to pay their employees. Nonetheless, airlines encouraged thousands of employees to buy out or retire early. When air travel recovered rapidly, airlines, like other businesses, struggled to hire and train employees such as pilots, flight attendants and baggage handlers.
Even as companies secured jobs, airlines remained vulnerable to disruption. Thousands of flights have been canceled across the country during the 2022 vacation, when a resurgence of the new coronavirus sickened many crew members and exacerbated the problem of bad weather.
Another problem: Aviation systems use technologies and ways of doing business that were developed years or even decades ago and are aging. Around Christmas last year, Southwest Airlines stranded millions of travelers as it struggled to weather a severe storm due to inadequate equipment and inadequate crew scheduling software and practices. . Weeks later, the FAA temporarily suspended all plane takeoffs across the United States after a contractor deleted a dated file in the pilot warning system.
The industry has introduced changes such as adding more staff, reducing the number of flights and increasing network resilience to minimize disruption. It seems to be working. By early May, weather was the main cause of flight delays, with limited cancellations, compared to 2019.
What will summer be like?
So far this year, air travel has returned to pre-pandemic levels, with more than 2.1 million people passing through airport checkpoints each day, the same as in the same period in 2019, according to US Transportation Security Administration data. number.
However, traffic could soon surpass even 2019 traffic volumes. Memorial Day marks the start of the summer travel season and is expected to be the third busiest in more than 20 years, with a 5.4% increase in people planning to fly compared to the same weekend before the pandemic. there is According to AAA travel club.
Dozens of major airports are also expected to see double-digit increases in traffic this summer compared to last summer, according to industry group Airlines for America. This list includes airports serving big cities such as New York, Los Angeles, Houston, Seattle and Denver. It also includes six United Airlines hubs, five Delta hubs, and four American Airlines hubs.
What is FAA doing?
To keep flights running smoothly this summer, the FAA is easing rules at some busy airports.
These rules require airlines to use or lose their allocated takeoff and landing slots. But by relaxing that requirement from mid-May to mid-September, the FAA hopes to encourage airlines to operate fewer large aircraft without fear of losing seats. This policy applies to his three major airports serving New York City, as well as Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport.
The FAA said the reason for the easing of the rule was partly due to a shortage of staff at the air traffic control center that serves New York’s airports, and that it employs only about half of its target number of air traffic controllers. . Without changes, flight delays this summer could increase by up to 45% compared to last summer, the FAA said. With many flights laying in New York, the problem could spread across the country.
The FAA also said it has taken steps to better accommodate flights around space launches, which are increasing, especially in Florida, but also in California and Texas. The agency announced in early May that it had opened 169 new routes, mostly in the highlands and along the east coast, to ease congestion.
Some airlines have said they prepared for the summer with plans to use larger aircraft, employ more staff and monitor more closely for early signs of disruption.
At the FAA’s request, several major airlines agreed to operate fewer flights at some busy airports and operate them with larger planes. For example, United Airlines said it plans to operate 30 fewer flights per day from its Newark hub than it did in the summer of 2019. However, the airline said it would increase the number of seats it offers in the New York area by 5 percent as it uses larger planes.
“We have a strong desire to operate on a larger schedule,” said Patrick Quayle, senior vice president of global network planning and alliances at United Airlines. “But what we care most about is running a reliable operation.”
Other airlines also plan to use larger aircraft on certain routes, but this has accelerated in recent years and is known as “upgage”. Airlines are planning about 5% more flights in the U.S. this summer than last summer, with about 10% more available seats, according to aviation data provider Cilium. Compared to summer 2019, the airline plans to operate 10 percent fewer flights this summer, while offering 3 percent more seats.
The industry is also actively recruiting and training new employees. According to an analysis of federal data by trade group Airlines for America, passenger airlines employed about 487,000 full-time employees as of March, the most since October 2001. rice field. Delta Air Lines Chief Executive Ed Bastian recently said the company had closed its hiring process.
Bastian told Wall Street analysts on a conference call in April, “The current hiring rate is the normal hiring rate for normal job cuts, and the significant hiring rate needed to get the business back on track. not,” he said. “So not only can we focus less on employee turnover and hiring, but we can also pick up employees who were in training and bring them back into the business.”
Airlines are also trying to be smart about spotting disruptions before they cause major delays or cancellations. Following the winter holiday fiasco, Southwest said it would be better off using real-time data to monitor network health. American also said it has introduced a system called “Heat” that allows it to quickly delay and cancel flights in response to mounting problems while minimizing the number of customers affected.
