Washington — Three-digit petrol bill. The price of hamburgers is soaring. The holiday of July 4th when the bank was destroyed.
Prices are rising at the fastest rate in 40 years, a painful development that gave Republicans a strong argument just months before the midterm elections. Parliamentary rule is so important that Republicans have invested heavily in the electric shock of campaign ads that portray a dark sense of economic turmoil while trying to make inflation a political ahodori for President Biden and the Democratic Party. I am.
According to Kantar’s Campaign Media Analysis Group, candidates running in house, senate, and governor races across the country have about 130,000 local and national television ads mentioning inflation from early April to early July. Spent about $ 22 million to air. According to the data, inflation is the tenth most common issue mentioned by the Democrats and the Republican Party is the eleventh most common issue, emphasizing how important this issue is to both parties in this election cycle. I am.
Data released Wednesday show that June prices have risen 9.1% over the past year, passing through Biden and Republican fresh ammunition against his party, a $ 1.9 trillion stimulus last year. Ammunition, including the Democratic Party’s negligence, and a radical climate and economic package known as the “Build Back Better.”
Increasing attention to inflation has already weighed on Mr. Biden’s polls. In this week’s New York Times / Siena University poll, only 33% showed his approval, and 20% of voters consider work and the economy to be the most important issues facing the country. Inflation and living expenses followed shortly thereafter. Polls also showed that competition for parliamentary control was surprisingly fierce.
Gas prices have fallen from a gallon peak of $ 5, showing signs that inflation could slow, but consumers are unlikely to feel better soon. Gas prices are much higher than they were a year ago, The average national price for gallons is $ 4.60 Against $ 3.15 in 2021, according to AAA.
“That’s very politically negative for the Democratic Party,” said Jason Furman, an economist at Harvard University and an economic adviser to the former Obama administration. “My guess is that negative views on inflation are so deeply burned that we can’t change them in the coming months.”
While acknowledging the pain caused by inflation, the White House sought to distract it, saying it was a global problem and was due to food and oil shortages resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by President Vladimir Putin. ..
On Wednesday, Biden called the latest consumer price index “obsolete” in light of the recent fall in gas prices, and the data says “all major economies are fighting this Covid-related challenge. Reminds me of an unfriendly attack. “
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Expected to be worried. With sustained high inflation, rising consumer prices and declining spending, the US economy is showing clear signs of a slowdown, fueling concerns about a potential recession. Here are eight other steps to signal the previous issue:
However, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yeren acknowledged that the pandemic aid package contributed to inflation by stimulating economic demand.Last month she Admitted that she was “wrong” The price increase is described as “temporary”.
Republicans argue that the Democratic Party and the Biden administration mislead voters, mistreat the economy, and the country is on the verge of economic collapse despite strong labor markets and other signs of economic health. I used it as proof.
Advertising funded by One Nation, a non-profit organization affiliated with Kentucky Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, has linked price increases to the $ 1.9 trillion US rescue program passed by the Democratic Party last year. increase. The ad targets Senator Mark Kelly, a Democrat in Arizona, and describes him as the “decision vote” for the bill. Pass Senate 50-49 No Republican support. The gravel-like voice reminds viewers that some of the money was spent on ski resorts, golf courses, and luxury hotels.
“Their spending has exacerbated inflation,” the narrator said when images of gas stations and grocery stores flashed across the screen.
The high clip on the empty food rack and the pump meter at the gas station are the background of the advertisement in favor of Republican Ohio Governor Mike Dewein. Television advertising begins with a keen critique of the president’s treatment of the economy: “Joe Biden’s inflation is crushing Americans.”
The National Republican Parliamentary Commission is advertising hamburgers, bread, propane, and petrol in an ad for Nevada Democratic House Representative Dina Titus, who opposes military veteran and business owner Mark Robertson. Emphasized the soaring sticker price.
“Democratic harmful economic policies make everything more expensive, and the end is invisible.” Said the narrator Like the images of Titus and Biden appearing in front of the background of the $ 100 bill.
Republicans aren’t the only ones talking about inflation on the trails. Democrats have acknowledged the puncture wounds of rising prices and have pledged and defended against them.
Democrat Tim Ryan, who is running for Ohio State Senator, does not mention Mr. Biden in a campaign ad shot at the basketball stadium. He argues that inflation is not a political issue and calls for improving the US supply chain through repayments, a strict response to China, and tax cuts.
“Who is tired of being hit by inflation here?” Ryan asked. “We need to be serious about reducing costs and actually helping people.”
The Federal Reserve is aggressively raising interest rates to curb inflation, which has been fueled by surges in demand from the Russian war in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions, and rising energy costs. The Fed’s focus on slowing the economy by raising borrowing costs raises concerns that the country may be in recession.
There are signs that inflation and recession concerns are growing.The National Federation of Independent Businesses said this week that small businesses are optimistic about the economic situation over the next six months. Fallen to record low June, with concerns about inflation, labor shortages and tax increases.
For some economists, political debates actually make it difficult for central banks to adjust so-called soft landings (cooling the economy without causing a recession) when the surge in campaign advertising fears inflation. He has expressed concern that it may be possible.
Understand inflation and its impact on you
As inflationary concerns grow and consumers begin to expect higher prices, workers may be forced to demand significant price increases from their bosses in anticipation of higher costs for goods and services. I have. These employers can increase the cost of goods and services they sell in order to cover higher labor costs.
Dean Baker, Senior Economist at the Center for Economic Policy Research, said: “It will be self-permanent.”
Goldman Sachs economists pointed out in a research note last month that inflation expectations, a key indicator of inflation, were found to be sensitive to new information such as political advertising.
“Fed officials may feel forced to respond vigorously to mitigate further rises in long-term inflation expectations,” they write. “As a result, future onslaught of inflation-focused political advertising adds the risk that the Fed may continue to tighten aggressively, even if economic activity slows sharply. “
The idea that the United States could be in recession in nature is not new. In 2019, before the pandemic, former President Donald J. Trump’s trade war with China disrupted markets and began to erode consumer sentiment. Critics and the media have accused critics and the media of “doing everything they can to disrupt the economy because I think it’s bad for me and my reelection.”
Mr Farman pointed out that economic conditions often differ according to the party’s policies, depending on the party in power, but it is unclear to what extent those sentiments will affect employment and investment plans.
“After Biden was elected, the Republicans became much more pessimistic about the economy,” he said.
Beyond campaign advertising, the sense of economic collapse is amplified by the right-hand media that consistently links inflation to Mr Biden’s policies.
Conservative commentator Monica Crowley, who regularly appears on Fox News, said inflation was a regular topic during her appearance and on the podcast. She argues that the surge in prices was in direct agreement with the passage of last year’s pandemic bailout package, saying that the Democratic Party would pay the price of inflation as it has hit the foundations of the low-income and working classes the most. I’m predicting.
“This is not an ambiguous financial or financial issue that Americans may understand,” said Crowley, a former Treasury official during the Trump administration. “Inflation affects everyone. The political impact of the Democratic Party will be very important.”
The Biden administration argued that the focus on inflation could be unfair.
Jared Bernstein, a member of the White House’s Economic Advisers, dismissed the idea that Biden was facing “Jimmy Carter Dejav” in terms of inflation, in an interview with Fox News. In the most negative light that suggested that the network was trying to cast the data.
“You like to focus on headwinds,” Bernstein told Fox’s Neil Cavout Wednesday. “And I understand it — if it bleeds, it leads.”
