Global Food Crisis Tests Western Resolve to Retain Russia Sanctions

Washington — In Yemen Bread surged 35 percent The week when Russia invaded Ukraine. Lebanese grain-deficient wheat factories have been forced to shut down and close bakeries in recent months. And in Kenya, there is a shortage of cooking oil.

Fallout fuels a terrifying hunger problem that cannot be easily undone around the world as the United States and Europe are considering the following sanctions to starve Russia in the income it is funding the war. There is growing concern. Policy makers are struggling to open up their supply chains and formulate plans to provide food loans to developing countries, but the combination of rising energy costs and curbing exports from Russia and Ukraine is a global force. Threatens some of the most vulnerable populations in the world.

Russian President Vladimir V. Putin accepted and exacerbated the crisis, blocking food and grain exports from the region and using the shortage as a means to revoke Western sanctions. High-ranking US and European officials have so far rejected such offers, discussing ways to extend sanctions without increasing collateral damage.

The region’s important role in the food supply chain represents a chain of impacts, driving global food prices soaring. Much of the world’s grain and fertilizer comes from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. Together, Russia and Ukraine export about 30% of the world’s wheat and 75% of sunflower oil. Blocking these supplies, along with uncertainty about the duration and extent of Western sanctions, urged other governments to block exports as countries attempted to stockpile goods.

Earlier this month, President Biden is working on a plan to build a temporary silo on the Ukraine-Poland border, allowing grain that is blocking Russia from crossing the Black Sea to be transported by rail to Europe and elsewhere. He said he was out.

“I’m working closely with our European partners to bring 20 million tonnes of grain trapped in Ukraine to the market and help lower food prices,” Biden said at the AFL-CIO convention. .. “But it takes time.”

In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the World Bank states that nearly half of people in low-income countries face food shortages, which often leads to social unrest.

“In some areas, there is a serious risk of malnutrition, hunger and even famine,” World Bank Governor David Malpass warned of global stagflation in early June. rice field.

People in emerging countries often spend most of their daily budget on food, and their costs are increasing. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, food prices in May rose nearly 30% from a year ago, boosted by rising grain and meat prices.

Soaring fertilizer prices and global energy prices caused by sanctions on Russia and Belarus have broadened the scope of food shortages by increasing the cost of producing and transporting food around the world. increase.

“Without fertilizer, the shortage extends from corn and wheat to all staple food crops, including rice, and has a devastating effect on billions of people in Asia and South America,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Says.

Rising prices are creating a new wave of protected trade. Countries such as Indonesia, India and Malaysia have restricted exports of cooking oil, wheat and chicken to segregate domestic markets. According to the report, about 20 countries have some sort of export control to limit the effects of soaring food prices. Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The problem is particularly troublesome, as many of the food crises can result from Russian sabotage.

“It’s the war that’s causing this,” Ireland’s Treasury Minister Paschal Donohoe said in an interview. “But policymakers in Europe, the United States and the G7 are very aware of the risks that developing countries, in particular, may face with respect to food security later this year.”

Donoho, chairman of the Eurogroup, a club of European Treasury ministers, said policymakers are taking sanctions to minimize food inflation. In the United States, the Treasury has issued several sanctions tax exemptions or general licenses. It aims to keep food exports flowing.

Despite these efforts, some fear that efforts to punish Russia will have unwanted side effects.

This month, the European Union enacted a new package banning most of Russia’s oil imports. In order to tighten regulations, the ban on shipping insurance companies for Russian cargo ships is being phased in. This is a measure aimed at blocking Russia’s ability to direct oil to other parts of the world.

Treasury officials have warned of such a move, fearing that food cargo could also be affected. If an insurer becomes overly cautious about sanctions violations, it can engage in what the government calls “self-sanctions.” In this case, the insurance company refuses to carry the cargo for fear of getting into trouble. To prevent such development, the Biden administration has reminded agriculture and shipping companies that US sanctions do not prevent the purchase and transportation of Russian fertilizers.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in April that the United States was drafting sanctions with global food supply in mind.

“Despite continuing to strengthen sanctions and other economic measures against Russia, we endorse important humanitarian and related activities that benefit people around the world, basic foodstuffs and We reiterate our commitment to ensure the availability of agricultural products. “

However, some development experts say that such commitments have not been achieved and that opposition to sanctions has permeated Africa.

At the European Union Summit in late May, African Union Chairman Macky Sall said the disconnection of Russia’s major banks from the international SWIFT messaging system hinders African countries’ ability to purchase Russian food and fertilizer. Warned the authorities.

“When the SWIFT system collapses, even if the product exists, it becomes complicated, if not impossible,” said Sall, president of Senegal.

As the war in Ukraine prolongs and food shortages worsen, debate about whether sanctions should be relaxed to stop famine could intensify.

Ian Mitchell of the Center for Global Development said Ukraine is already facing food insecurity and now has to deal with higher levels of humanitarian aid that damages low-income countries in the Middle East, Africa and Central America. He said it has become a global magnet. price. He argued that sanctions relief should be at the table.

“Even if it’s clear who the invaders of the war are, we need some serious consideration as to whether there are some concessions in the margins to tackle that suffering,” Mitchell said. .. “Will relaxing some of these sanctions really have a dramatic impact on Russia’s calculations?”

The dilemma is exactly what analysts say Putin is expecting.

“Russia taking food supply hostages should be blamed,” said Alex Zarden, a former Treasury official in the Obama and Trump administrations. “The fact that they are trying to negotiate sanctions relief to enable some grain exports can help Russia unilaterally expand its global food supply to help those at greatest risk. It shows that we can do it. “

Meanwhile, humanitarian groups are struggling to provide aid to poor countries as inflation expands their own budgets.

The World Bank has promised to invest $ 12 billion in new projects over the next 15 months to support farmers and promote trade, and many of the world’s major international financial institutions will alleviate food shortages. Promised to develop assistance and financing plans for.

For many countries it can be too late.

Tjada D’Oyen McKenna, CEO of the humanitarian group Mercy Corps, said sanctions have had unintended consequences for the most vulnerable communities, with higher transportation costs and export controls exacerbating the situation. Her team is trying to offset rising fertilizer costs in Colombia and help medium-sized dairy farmers in Lebanon build more capacity, but due to inflation, aid is as high as it once was. Will not go.

McKenna said in Yemen, families need to reduce their rations so that they only get flour and cooking oil, not beans and salt. She explained that the effects of the war in Ukraine are felt far from the conflict.

“Everyone is looking at the reception and support that Ukraine receives, and we are sure that different countries in the Middle East and Africa do not receive the same support,” McKenna said. “Decades of progress on poverty have been reversed.”