With Surge in July, U.S. Recovers the Jobs Lost in the Pandemic

U.S. job growth accelerated in almost every industry in July, with a national employment has returned to pre-pandemic levels.

employer Added 528,000 jobs On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department said Friday it was more than double what forecasters had predicted. The unemployment rate has dropped to 3.5% for him, the same as it was in February 2020, from a 50-year low.

Strong job growth is welcome news for the Biden administration in a year when blistering inflation and fears of a recession have repeatedly plagued the economy. “Today’s employment numbers show that we are making great strides for working families,” Biden said.

Continued strength in the labor market is underscored by a second consecutive quarter of declining inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, sharp declines in consumer sentiment about the economy and a decline in presidential approval ratings. I’m here.

Noting that job growth is the economy’s north star, Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan, said, “I’ve never seen such a big disconnect between the data and the general mood. No,’ he said. “It’s worth emphasizing that these data are much more reliable than GDP when trying to understand trends across the economy.”

But the report could cement the Federal Reserve’s resolve to cool the economy. Wage growth accelerated, reaching 5.2% over the past year. This indicates that labor costs could spur inflation.

The Federal Reserve has hiked rates four times in its fight to contain the steepest inflation in 40 years. The strategy could lead to a slowdown in hiring later in the year as companies cut jobs in line with expected lower demand.

“At this stage, we are fine,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at bank ING. “For example, December or early next year could see much softer numbers.”

The country lost about 22 million jobs early in the pandemic. The recovery is much quicker than it was after previous recessions, but employment is still lower than would have been expected had Covid-19 not occurred.

July’s rise was the strongest in five months, even as consumers shifted spending from goods that were unavailable during two years of public health restrictions to experiences outside the home. and spread to almost every corner of the economy.

Leisure and hospitality businesses led the increase, adding 96,000 jobs, including 74,000 in bars and restaurants. The sector has been the slowest to recover losses from the pandemic, with him remaining 7.1% below February 2020 levels.

Professional and business services followed closely, adding 89,000 jobs in management, architectural and engineering services, and research and development. The sector, which was largely unaffected during the pandemic, is now about 1 million more than its pre-recession level.

Charlene Ferguson is part of that boom. As her director of sales and marketing for her provider of technology services in Dallas, she has for months struggled to hire qualified workers at a wage she can afford.

“People who used to start with $22 an hour are now asking for $35 to $40 an hour,” says Ferguson. “Most job seekers have not finished school.”

Her firm’s clients include accountants, manufacturers and the local chamber of commerce, all nervous about the direction of the economy. For now, she’s trying to maintain the line, invest in automation software, and retain employees.

“Now is not the time to lay off employees and do normal marketing. It doesn’t matter what business you’re in,” Ferguson said.

the only wide range of industries Automakers lost their jobs in July, losing about 2,200 jobs as companies continued to struggle to get the parts they needed to produce finished cars. The public sector added his 57,000 employees, mostly teachers, but he remained 2.6% below pre-pandemic levels.

In critical industries like technology, if some employers start laying off, those workers could be absorbed by companies that wanted more people but couldn’t find them. And for many types of businesses, if orders slowed more broadly, enough was accumulating to boost hiring heading into the fall.

For example, mortgage rates have risen and new Housing construction starts When To give permission Once it starts to decline, homebuilding jobs are expected to decline. Nevertheless, the construction industry saw him add 32,000 jobs in July.

Amy Glaser, senior vice president of business operations at global staffing firm Adecco, said: “This will help us get through this time as it takes months to catch up.”

Paradoxically, the fear of a recession may be motivating more people to take jobs while there are still vacancies and to stay in them.number of unemployed 27 weeks or more In July, it fell to 1.1 million, To quit a job has been flat or declining since February.small business report Employment remains the top concern, but worker availability has improved slightly in recent months.

“Workers have generally had the luxury of choosing between multiple offers over the past year,” said Simona Mokta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors. If the consumer sentiment survey is correct and there is a sense that things are starting to change, there may be incentives to choose and go for it.”

But as a big star to the report’s broad strengths, despite high demand, it does little to expand the ranks of available workers by pulling people off the sidelines of the labor market. Is not …

The overall labor force participation rate fell slightly to 62.1%, 1.3 percentage points below its February 2020 level. Policy makers have been watching this figure closely. A larger pool of available workers could help keep labor costs down and help mitigate inflation.

People over the age of 55, in particular, are facing growing fears of inadequate retirement savings, as bank accounts that ballooned during the pandemic have dried up, stock market declines have led to the loss of some 401(k) accounts, and more. Don’t go looking for a job much though. .

part of the evidence suggesta long and debilitating increase in the Covid epidemic may be to blame. have shown to be persistent, but said there may not be enough awareness of the opportunities available.

“I think this reflects an information asymmetry,” said Lia. “I know there’s a lot of offers out there, but if you sit on the sidelines, it’s probably hard to know that your skills in restaurants can change pretty quickly and move into transportation and warehousing. It is very difficult.

Maine resident Jessica Buckley is one of those who thought of a new career but never took the plunge. Job Information above the national average.

She had an agricultural marketing job until about 10 years ago, when she decided to stay home with her children. When she started looking for her job again, she could not find anything comparable to this in the area and decided to take up her field while her family could live on her husband’s income. was reluctant to change

But she’s more open to becoming a paralegal and working at a restaurant. At the restaurant, her inflation-adjusted wages have risen by 18.6% since the pandemic began.

“I started bartending and went back to being a waiter at times because there’s something fascinating about just showing up, doing something, and leaving,” Buckley, 52, said. Told.

Ben Casselman contributed to the report.