The US may be looking to strengthen its technological turf against China beyond semiconductors. According to Bloomberg sources, the Biden administration has had discussions at home and abroad about further isolating China from high-tech solutions that could affect national and global security.The most important areas are AI software and quantum computing. The field and despite remarkable progress, the potential for global disruption is still being assessed. Further sanctions will empower incumbents, including (to some extent) Chinese quantum computing firms.
One thing both technologies have in common is that they are still in their early stages. Quantum computing and AI-related headlines pop up every day. Efforts to regulate China’s access to such rapidly changing technologies leave the Biden administration between a rock and a hard place. Sanctions aimed at China have been shown to have a negative impact not only on their intended recipients, but on the world at large, especially American semiconductor companies.
Another factor that must be considered in sanctions is the technical field itself. Essentially, what specific elements of each technology are likely to be licensed and will hurt China the most and the rest of the world the least? What price will you pay?
Companies in the quantum computing space may say otherwise, but their current approach to the space shows the number of potential sanctioning grounds. Should the Biden administration sanction all sorts of quantum computing approaches, from superconducting qubits to ion chains? What impact will it have on quantum computing research and the product market if it hits and leaves other companies behind? What if new quantum computing (or AI) approaches surface?
Despite the cost and difficulty of recognizing the scale of US regulatory intervention required, China’s efforts in the quantum computing space should give the US pause. The many accusations flying about the theft of intellectual property and state secrets, combined with China’s clear interest in leading research and development in this area, open the door to serious privacy and national security concerns. Open
As quantum computing moves past the current NISQ (Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum Era), attackers will have a way to crack currently applied cryptographic algorithms. This includes data in motion and data at rest. “Steal Now, Decrypt Later” AttacksWho knows, petabytes (?) of intercepted data are waiting for the moment when quantum computers come along to subvert current encryption schemes. The impact of cracking quantum computing first cannot be overstated. Especially if the post-quantum cryptography standard is still being debated, especially if the crack was done by actors who feel they have a score to settle.
China has shown incredible resilience despite increased sanctions. Even after being cut off from the latest manufacturing technology, his OceanLight supercomputer in the country side-by-side with AMD-built Frontier, Gordon challenged his Bell Award shortlist. The award is directly related to his AI workloads, with China deploying supercomputers powered by his 14nm-era hardware for work deemed relevant enough to compete for the award. was successfully executed. China is very likely to go down this path. As they say, “Where there’s a will, there’s a way.”
